Murphy, TX Housing Market Update – March 2026
Reporting Period: Feb 1–Feb 28, 2026 • Data via NTREIS
Murphy is a tight-knit Collin County community — well-regarded schools, established neighborhoods, and a price profile that attracts families upgrading from entry-level suburbs. February's data is thin, and the volume drop warrants a careful read rather than a reflexive reaction. Eight transactions in a single month can produce headline numbers that look alarming when they're really just the natural volatility of a small market.
A note on sample size: With only 8 closed sales in February, Murphy's monthly statistics carry significant variability. In a market this size, the specific mix of homes that transact — their price points, sizes, and ages — can produce percentage swings that don't reflect broad value movement across the community. Treat these figures as directional context rather than precise market valuations.
Key Highlights | Murphy Housing Market Update
- Median Sale Price: $579,000 (↓ 5.1% YoY — see note above)
- Closed Sales: 8 (↓ 50.0% YoY — see note above)
- Active Listings: 43 (↑ 34.4% YoY)
- Months of Inventory: 3.4 (↑ 1.0 month YoY)
- Median Days on Market: 57 (↑ 24 days YoY)
- Median Price per Sq Ft: $182.43 (↓ 5.0% YoY)
- Close-to-Original List Price: 94.1%
PRICES
Murphy's February median came in at $579,000 — a 5.1% decline from a year ago — and price per square foot landed at $182.43, down 5.0%. Both figures are influenced by the eight homes that happened to close in February, and both deserve the small-sample caveat. What the price distribution confirms is that Murphy operates almost exclusively in the $500–$749k range: 87.5% of February closings fell there, with the remaining 12.5% in the $400–$499k band. No sales occurred below $400k or above $750k. That concentration in a single tier means the median is less susceptible to compositional distortion than some other markets — which lends modest credibility to the modest year-over-year softening.
SALES ACTIVITY
Eight closed sales is half the volume of February 2025's 16 — a 50% decline that sounds dramatic but translates to a difference of just eight transactions. In a community where monthly closings routinely fluctuate between single digits and the low twenties, one slow February doesn't establish a trend. What's more instructive is the pace data: homes averaged 57 days on market — up 24 days year over year — while total transaction time came in at 75 days, up 14 from last February. Days to close actually improved sharply to 18 days, down 10 from a year ago, confirming that under-contract transactions are moving to close quickly once a buyer commits.
INVENTORY
Active listings jumped to 43 — a 34.4% increase from 32 a year ago — and months of inventory rose to 3.4, up a full month year over year. That inventory expansion is the most meaningful structural shift in Murphy's February data. More listings relative to a smaller buyer pool translates directly into more buyer leverage and a longer time to contract. At 3.4 months, Murphy sits in balanced territory, but the trend line is moving toward buyers — sellers who priced optimistically in early 2025 may find the current environment less forgiving.
MARKET BALANCE
The close-to-list ratio of 94.1% — down from 97.2% in early 2024 — tells the market balance story cleanly. Buyers have recovered roughly three percentage points of negotiating room over the past two years. In Murphy's $500k–$750k price range, that translates to real money. The combination of rising inventory, extended days on market, and a declining close-to-list ratio all point in the same direction: sellers still transact, but the environment demands more realistic pricing and more patience than it did twelve months ago.
What Sellers Need to Know
- Active listings grew 34.4% year over year — your competition field has expanded meaningfully, and buyers in the $500k–$750k range have real alternatives to evaluate.
- The close-to-list ratio has slipped from 97.2% to 94.1% — buyers are negotiating roughly $25k–$30k off list price in this range on average. Price accordingly.
- Homes are averaging 57 days on market before going under contract — a patient, well-priced home will transact; an overpriced one will exhaust its market window and require reductions.
- The median year built of 2003 means buyers will factor inspection findings carefully — present-ready condition reduces negotiation friction significantly at this price point.
What Buyers Need to Know
- 43 active listings gives you genuine selection in a community that has historically run tight on inventory — more options than Murphy has offered in several years.
- The close-to-list ratio of 94.1% is your negotiating baseline — reasonable offers with concession requests are being accepted in this market.
- Murphy's Collin County location and school district access remain strong demand anchors — the inventory expansion is an opportunity, not a warning signal about the community's appeal.
- The median home size of 3,374 square feet reflects a community built for families — factor in operating costs (utilities, maintenance) alongside purchase price when evaluating your budget.
2026 Murphy Housing Market Forecast
Murphy's spring 2026 outlook hinges on whether the inventory expansion seen in February continues or moderates as seasonal demand builds. With 43 active listings and only 8 closings in February, the absorption rate suggests the market could carry elevated supply through at least mid-year without a meaningful demand catalyst.
If mortgage rates ease in the second half of 2026, Murphy's $500k–$750k price tier is well-positioned to attract pent-up demand from buyers who've been waiting for improved affordability. The community's Collin County fundamentals — schools, infrastructure, established neighborhoods — provide durable demand support that should limit any meaningful price deterioration.
Given the small monthly transaction volume, multi-month trends are a more reliable guide to Murphy's direction than any single month's data. Watch the spring closings for confirmation of whether February's softness was seasonal or structural.
Thinking about buying or selling in Murphy? The Dunnican Team works across Collin and Dallas County markets and knows what the current conditions mean for your specific situation. Reach out today.
Source: NTREIS MLS (Feb 1–Feb 28, 2026) with February 2025 comparison metrics from the Texas REALTORS® Data Relevance Project, in partnership with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.
