North Texas Housing Market Update

Monthly residential real estate data for Dallas, Rockwall, Collin, Hunt, and Denton counties • Published monthly by The Dunnican Team at Coldwell Banker Apex, Realtors • Data via NTREIS and the Texas REALTORS® Data Relevance Project

Why North Texas Real Estate Is Different

The Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex is one of the most consequential housing markets in the United States — and understanding it requires more than reading the national headlines. DFW adds more residents per year than many U.S. states, driven by a combination of domestic in-migration, corporate relocation, and international arrivals that has been running at roughly 150,000 net new residents annually for over a decade. That sustained population growth is the foundation underneath everything else that happens here.

What makes northeast Dallas and Rockwall County particularly interesting is the degree of variation across a compact geography. Within a 30-mile radius of Rockwall, you'll find entry-level new construction starting in the $280,000s in Lavon and Royse City, established suburban neighborhoods in the $350,000–$500,000 range in Rowlett, Sachse, and Wylie, premium communities like Murphy, Allen, and Plano in the $450,000–$650,000 corridor, and waterfront and custom acreage properties in Heath, McLendon-Chisholm, and Sunnyvale pushing well past $700,000. Each of those submarkets responds differently to interest rate shifts, inventory changes, and seasonal demand — which is why a single DFW-wide statistic rarely tells the whole story.

The region's economic foundation is exceptionally diversified. Major employers across finance, technology, healthcare, logistics, aerospace, and manufacturing have established significant North Texas footprints, giving the job market a resilience that purely single-industry metros don't have. That employment base, combined with Texas's lack of a state income tax and relatively accessible land costs compared to coastal metros, continues to attract businesses and families from across the country — and increasingly, from around the world.

Where We've Been: A Brief History of the DFW Market

To understand where the North Texas market is today, it helps to know how we got here.

Pre-pandemic baseline (2016–2019): DFW was already one of the fastest-appreciating markets in the country, with annual price growth consistently running in the 6–10% range. Inventory was tight but manageable — most cities tracked between 2.5 and 4.5 months of supply. Buyers competed, but multiple-offer situations were the exception rather than the rule. This period established what "normal" looks like for the region.

The pandemic surge (2020–2022): What followed was unlike anything the DFW market had experienced. Record-low mortgage rates — 30-year fixed loans touching the mid-2% range in late 2020 and 2021 — combined with a dramatic shift in household preferences (more space, home offices, suburban living) triggered a buying frenzy that emptied inventory to historically low levels. Many communities saw months of inventory drop below one month. Homes routinely received 10, 20, or 30 offers in days, selling well above asking price with no contingencies. Median prices across northeast Dallas suburbs appreciated 30–50% over roughly 24 months — a run that compressed years of normal appreciation into a single cycle. That surge set a pricing reference point that still shapes seller expectations today.

The rate shock and correction (2022–2024): When the Federal Reserve began its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades, mortgage rates rose from below 3% to above 7% in under 18 months. That shift effectively priced a large segment of buyers out of the monthly payment they could qualify for and created the so-called "lock-in effect" — existing homeowners with 2–3% mortgages had little financial incentive to sell and take on a new loan at twice the rate. The result was a sharp decline in transaction volume, a build-up of inventory as motivated sellers and new construction competed for a smaller buyer pool, and gradual price softening across most DFW communities. Home values across the Metroplex fell roughly 5% on average in 2025, with deeper corrections in markets where new construction had been most aggressive.

Where we are now (2025–2026): The DFW market is in a period of transition and normalization. Rates have declined from their peak — Fannie Mae's March 2026 forecast projects the 30-year fixed rate will reach 5.7–5.9% by mid-to-late 2026 — and buyer activity is beginning to recover, particularly at price points where affordability improvement is most meaningful. Inventory has expanded from crisis lows, giving buyers more options than they've had since 2019 in many communities, while still remaining below levels that would suggest oversupply. Pricing is broadly stable, with some communities showing renewed appreciation and others continuing to adjust. The market's performance is increasingly hyper-local — which is why city-by-city analysis matters more than it ever did during the pandemic years when essentially every community was moving in the same direction.

One data point that illustrates the enduring long-term health of the broader Dallas market: Highland Park's 75205 ZIP code has reclaimed its position as the most expensive in Texas, according to a recent report — a distinction it has held for most of the past decade. Read the full report → While Highland Park operates at price points far above most of our service area, its continued strength as one of the most expensive ZIP codes in the country signals that the broader DFW market's long-term fundamentals are intact. The same population growth, economic diversification, and quality-of-life factors that support value in Park Cities support value throughout the Metroplex — including northeast Dallas, Rockwall County, and Collin County.

What the Past Suggests About What's Ahead

Looking at the full arc of the DFW market over the past 15 years, a few patterns emerge that are useful context for where we're likely headed.

DFW has not sustained prolonged price declines. Even during the national housing correction of 2007–2012, Dallas-area prices declined far less than other major metros and recovered faster. The structural underpinnings — population growth, job creation, land availability, and relatively low cost of living compared to coastal markets — have consistently provided a floor under prices even when national conditions turned sharply negative. The 2025 softening, while real, has been measured rather than dramatic by historical standards.

Rate sensitivity cuts both ways. The same mortgage rate sensitivity that slowed the market in 2023–2024 will work in reverse as rates decline. When buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines re-enter the market in force, demand can recover faster than inventory can respond — particularly in communities with limited resale supply and no new construction pipeline. Markets like Flower Mound, Carrollton, Richardson, and Rowlett — where supply is structurally constrained — could see activity accelerate quickly once financing conditions improve meaningfully.

New construction creates both competition and long-term value. Outer-ring communities like Royse City, Lavon, Fate, and the Community ISD area have seen significant new construction activity that has created short-term pricing competition for resale sellers. Historically, that new construction also grows the community's infrastructure, amenities, and desirability — benefits that tend to support resale values over a 5–10 year horizon even when they create headwinds in the near term.

Demographics are supportive. Millennials — the largest generational cohort in American history — are in their prime homebuying years, and Gen Z buyers are beginning to reach the financial thresholds required for homeownership. That sustained demographic demand provides a long-term floor under transaction volume that doesn't depend on favorable interest rates to exist; it just needs rates to be manageable enough to convert intent into action.

None of this is a guarantee of appreciation, and individual markets and price points will continue to perform differently. But for buyers and sellers in northeast Dallas, Rockwall County, and the surrounding communities, the historical record suggests that patient, well-informed decisions made at any point in the cycle have tended to produce good outcomes over time.

Browse by City or Area

Each city card links to the current monthly market update and to active homes for sale in that area. Market update links direct to the February 2026 report; homes for sale show current available inventory.

Northeast Dallas & Rowlett Corridor

Rockwall County

Collin County

Hunt County & Extended East

Dallas County West & Denton County

Data via NTREIS • Texas REALTORS® Data Relevance Project • Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University • Updated monthly